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Title: Electric Utilities and Y2K Author: Rick Cowles Publisher: Rick Cowles Date Published: 1998 Pages: 153 Bibliography: 8 Figures: 9 |
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Testing which has already been done indicates that in some cases, these flawed PLC's can indeed cause power generation facilities to shut down come January 1, 2000. Remediation efforts are slow and costly. In one case, fifteen man-months was required to analyze (inventory, risk assessment, and problem identification) just the boiler-control subsystem of one power generating plant. Additional time will be required for remediation.
While optimists may speculate that there are no significant year 2000 related bugs in the nuclear power plants, Rick points out that
in the world of nuclear energy, "not knowing" is the same as assuming the worst will occur.I will only add that it is much harder to prove the absence of problems than it is to say "I can't think of any potential problems." Anyone curious about why the NRC takes such a hard stance regarding staying within fully analyzed operating conditions may find the discussion of the failure modes which lead to the Chernobyl disaster in the book The Logic of Failure to be of interest.
Such problems have already been demonstrated during year 2000 testing. If the NRC feels that such problems may affect the off-site power grid to which a nuclear plant is connected, it is likely to order the plant shut down until all concern regarding the stability of the power grid has been resolved.
To minimize legal exposure, utilities must take a number of steps to communicate an honest appraisal of the status of their year 2000 readiness. However, contrary to Yourdon's suggestion, a year 2000 bug is not likely to cause people's electricity to be turned off for non-payment.
There is some concern that the purchasers of the power generation facilities will not be as driven by the traditional industry ethic to "keep the lights on at all costs." Their MBA's may instead decide that it is more cost effective to temporarily make a planned shut-down at the turn of the century and restart the systems after they have leisurely tested and fixed their systems.
Year 2000 failures require different contingency plans than other failures (for which contingency plans and drills do exist), because year 2000 failures are common-mode and systemic, rather than independent random failure events that most contingency plans address. If systems have to fall back to manual mode operation, are there enough trained personnel available to handle the wide-spread systemic failures? Rick argues that there are not.
The need for training simulators is discussed in a white paper by Dick Mills, which is included in this book.
Another potential area of power generator shut-downs is an inability to monitor and log plant emissions as required by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Emergency waivers may be necessary to keep the lights on, although hard-core environmentalists will likely scream that it is far better to freeze to death in the dark than to allow a temporary increase in air pollution.
Just inventorying the embedded systems in use is a formidable problem, and good project management skills are necessary to avoid "analysis paralysis."
Power plants will have to be taken off-line top do year 2000 testing, and this will reduce available online capacity before the year 2000. Power shortages may well develop just due to year 2000 testing and maintenance activities, especially during peak summer cooling and winter heating times.
It is my opinion that government officials should consider whether it might be in the best interests of the public to temporarily relax pollution standards during these times so that older power plants which are being retired to meet ever-more stringent anti-pollution standards will be available to pick up the load in the event of power shortages. Again, hard-core environmentalists will likely argue that protecting scenic views at the Grand Canyon is more important than providing electric power necessary to prevent heat-related deaths in the desert southwest or cold-related deaths in the northern parts of the U.S. [No, I am not arguing in favor of dirty air, I am arguing for a sane cost-benefit analysis in which the welfare of the citizens is placed above the desires of special interest lobbys].
This chapter has various suggestions for contingency planning. Problems can arise as early as January 1, 1999. A Backup Power Generator FAQ is included. CAUTION: backup generators produce carbon monoxide, and people have died during power outages because they ran their backup generators inside their homes. For more things to consider when deciding what kind of contingency plans you should make, I recommend that you refer to the book by noted computer industry expert Ed Yourdon and his daughter Jennifer Yourdon, Time Bomb 2000 and perhaps even the fictional account of a collapse of society TEOTWAWKI (The End of the World as We Know It)
Don't rely on government, at any level, to play a significant role in mitigating the impact of Y2K.
....
Lastly, be aware that no matter how much you know about Y2K, many of your friends and family will think you're riding the edge of the lunatic fringe when you go spouting off about Y2K!Ignore them.
Despite Rick's pessimism regarding the efficacy of government in dealing with the year 2000 problem, he still recommends that you express your concerns to your elected representatives, and that you also ask some very pointed questions of your local electric utilities. I echo Rick's sentiments, and especially believe that much good can come of pointedly asking your Congressional Representative and Senators to pro-actively develop National contingency plans. Remember, if the government doesn't have a good contingency plan already in place, Bill Clinton will be the person trying to "wing-it".
I have taken this program and I highly recommend it to all health-care providers - Orville R. Weyrich, Jr PhD NMD. 
For more information, see: The CSI Report and Video and Become a New Patient Magnet |
